There’s potential for a high-end tornado outbreak for parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley Monday, as a broader severe weather threat targets more than 60 million people across a corridor from southern Minnesota to parts of the South, including Arkansas, northern Mississippi and northern Alabama.
Whether that outbreak materializes will be largely dependent on ongoing thunderstorm activity and how long cloud cover will remain over Missouri, Illinois and Indiana early Monday.
As of now, a volatile atmosphere is expected to develop, supporting the potential for a severe weather outbreak. Ongoing morning storms may limit afternoon storm development where they persist, but there is increasing confidence in a corridor of undisturbed air that could support the development of potentially intense EF-3+ tornadoes.
This has prompted the Storm Prediction Center to issue a Level 4 out of 5 severe weather risk for southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
Some major cities in the Level 4 threat zone include St. Louis; Cape Girardeau, Rolla and Poplar Bluff, Missouri; and Mount Vernon, Illinois.
This is the latest severe weather threat in a relentless outbreak that began last Thursday, which produced a destructive EF-4 in Enid, Oklahoma, and twisters that killed at least two people in Runaway Bay, Texas late Saturday.
Sunday’s severe weather threat produced large hail and damaging wind gusts across Kansas, Oklahoma and parts of North Texas.
Severe thunderstorms were ongoing early Monday, blasting through the Central Plains and the Midwest. Quarter-sized hail, heavy rain and winds gusts up to 70 mph were recorded moving through Kansas City, Missouri. Strong storms also swept through St. Louis.
The heavy rain from these storms also produced flash flooding across parts of Kansas and Missouri, with a swath of 3 to 5 inches of total rainfall through Tuesday morning.
Severe thunderstorms were ongoing early Monday, blasting through the Central Plains and the Midwest. Quarter-sized hail, heavy rain and winds gusts up to 70 mph were recorded moving through Kansas City, Missouri. Strong storms also swept through St. Louis.
The heavy rain from these storms also produced flash flooding across parts of Kansas and Missouri, with a swath of 3 to 5 inches of total rainfall through Tuesday morning.
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In addition to the potential for long-track tornadoes, there is a Level 4 out of 5 risk of wind gusts exceeding 60 mph across this same area.
If clouds remain after noon, severe weather will likely be less intense but still pack damaging wind gusts, hail and a tornado or two.
A broader Level 2 threat covers parts of southern Wisconsin, eastern Iowa, northeastern Arkansas, and Middle Tennessee. Chicago, Indianapolis, Memphis and Nashville are all included.
Monday afternoon storms are expected to begin after 2 p.m. and last through 10 p.m.
Storms shift east across Lower Mississippi Valley Tuesday
Tuesday’s severe weather forecast is also dependent on how storms develop Monday, but storms are expected to fire in the afternoon primarily across the cold front that will be draped over the Lower Mississippi Valley including southern Missouri, Arkansas, Mississippi, northeastern Alabama and Tennessee.
A Level 2 threat stretches from northeast Texas into central Kentucky.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, some of these storms could become more organized and produce large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two.
